Morning Memo: Deborah Yedlin

It's D-Day for Fording Canadian Coal Trust. Today is the day its sale to Teck closes, and the more than $9.8 billion US needed to seal the deal from a banking syndicate made up of six banks is coughed up.

It could very well mark an inflection point in the context of the overwhelming uncertainty that continues to plague stock markets. If a banking syndicate can commit to coming up with that kind of cash to lend, the market would be right in taking it as a sign that things might be easing.

Of course, there is another school of thought that says the $9.8 billion is all the banks have - and once it's been lent to Teck, there is nothing left for anyone else to borrow.

Assuming everything goes according to plan, however, closing this deal might wind up being the easiest part.  With Teck shares continuing to sink, the market is signaling concern over the company's debt load.

Adding to the furrowed brow factor is the uncertainty over the coal contracts for the coming year.  There are increasing signs that demand for iron ore is slowing down - and that means coking coal, the stuff used with iron ore to make steel and what Fording has loads of - is likely to see lower contract prices in the coming year.  This might not be good news for Teck - which becomes the second largest producer of seaborne metallurgical coal in the world following the Fording acquisition - because it has made it very clear that job number one is to pay down debt. But it's good news for any company in the market for steel - like an oilsands player.

There isn't an aspect of the energy world that is not exposed to the cost of steel, which has risen exponentially alongside the jump in iron ore and coking coal prices.  In the context of the energy sector, and especially the oil sands, lower steel prices for the mega projects is positive in an otherwise grim environment. And while lower prices might mean Teck takes a bit longer to pay down the debt, the silver lining in all this is that it means costs at the Fort Hills oil sands project, where Teck is in partnership with Petro-Canada and UTS Energy, could be on the way down.

And in a world of lower oil prices, falling costs are key to future investment and profitability.